The great doubt of the market against Trump, the impulse to Tesla and the risk of the dollar
The great doubt of the market against Trump, the impulse to Tesla and the risk of the dollar
Julian Bridgen, Co-Founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, points out that, as the economy expands thanks to the increase in employment and consumption, USA. It usually generates a great deficit in its current account, which means that it matters a lot of goods. This deficit must be financed by foreign capital. As they know in countries like Brazil or Argentina, if foreign investors stop financing the deficit, a problem is generated.
Bridgen also explains that a cycle is created in which money flows to the US, is invested in US assets, which in turn supports the economy. Bridgen shows through a graph, which this depends on the dollar remains strong, since investors have injected money in the US in their own currency without covering risks. Since this capital finances the US current account deficit, any weakening of the dollar could destabilize this financial cycle.
José Torres, an expert in global markets, explains that there is currently a lot of uncertainty in the markets, which has led investors to sell shares. He points out that in 2023 and 2024, American actions rose 25%, mainly due to an expansion in the valuations, not only to an increase in profits. Torres points out that although the economic prognosis is uncertain, there is room for profits to grow less than expected, but the value of the actions can also be adjusted to more consistent levels with historical averages. As for purchasing opportunities, he believes that when the shares fall 10% compared to their previous maximum, it is usually a purchase opportunity, but it must be carefully evaluated in a context of recession, since in that case the falls can be higher.
